Contributed by Todd Hebden.Director of Operations, USA Sport Group.
Team losing? Sack the manager, that always works…or does it?
When everything’s going wrong for a team and the fans are calling for the managers head and second guessing every move, the finger never seems to be pointed at the players on the field; it’s the man that pulls the strings who’s inevitably held to task. If in doubt, axe the manager, that seems to be the mantra of most sports teams. Years ago coaches and managers were afforded a little longer to bail out a sinking ship but the landscape has changed; no excuses, just results.
So does firing the manager actually have the desired result and save a team from relegation, or at the other end of the table, propel a team to the title? To find some semblance of an answer I took a look at how teams fared in the English Premier League after their manager was fired. By using the average points per game (PPG) a team achieved under each manager we can estimate where a team would have finished in the table if they’d have kept the same manager until the end of the season, or where they’d be if they’d had their new manager from the start of the season. You’ll see each of the four teams that changed managers during the season (Chelsea, Sunderland, Q.P.R. & Wolves) displayed 3 times in the table below: Their actual position as they finished, plus the two hypothetical positions: one for each of their two managers.
When everything’s going wrong for a team and the fans are calling for the managers head and second guessing every move, the finger never seems to be pointed at the players on the field; it’s the man that pulls the strings who’s inevitably held to task. If in doubt, axe the manager, that seems to be the mantra of most sports teams. Years ago coaches and managers were afforded a little longer to bail out a sinking ship but the landscape has changed; no excuses, just results.
So does firing the manager actually have the desired result and save a team from relegation, or at the other end of the table, propel a team to the title? To find some semblance of an answer I took a look at how teams fared in the English Premier League after their manager was fired. By using the average points per game (PPG) a team achieved under each manager we can estimate where a team would have finished in the table if they’d have kept the same manager until the end of the season, or where they’d be if they’d had their new manager from the start of the season. You’ll see each of the four teams that changed managers during the season (Chelsea, Sunderland, Q.P.R. & Wolves) displayed 3 times in the table below: Their actual position as they finished, plus the two hypothetical positions: one for each of their two managers.





