Contributed by Todd Hebden.Director of Operations, USA Sport Group.
Team losing? Sack the manager, that always works…or does it?
When everything’s going wrong for a team and the fans are calling for the managers head and second guessing every move, the finger never seems to be pointed at the players on the field; it’s the man that pulls the strings who’s inevitably held to task. If in doubt, axe the manager, that seems to be the mantra of most sports teams. Years ago coaches and managers were afforded a little longer to bail out a sinking ship but the landscape has changed; no excuses, just results.
So does firing the manager actually have the desired result and save a team from relegation, or at the other end of the table, propel a team to the title? To find some semblance of an answer I took a look at how teams fared in the English Premier League after their manager was fired. By using the average points per game (PPG) a team achieved under each manager we can estimate where a team would have finished in the table if they’d have kept the same manager until the end of the season, or where they’d be if they’d had their new manager from the start of the season. You’ll see each of the four teams that changed managers during the season (Chelsea, Sunderland, Q.P.R. & Wolves) displayed 3 times in the table below: Their actual position as they finished, plus the two hypothetical positions: one for each of their two managers.
When everything’s going wrong for a team and the fans are calling for the managers head and second guessing every move, the finger never seems to be pointed at the players on the field; it’s the man that pulls the strings who’s inevitably held to task. If in doubt, axe the manager, that seems to be the mantra of most sports teams. Years ago coaches and managers were afforded a little longer to bail out a sinking ship but the landscape has changed; no excuses, just results.
So does firing the manager actually have the desired result and save a team from relegation, or at the other end of the table, propel a team to the title? To find some semblance of an answer I took a look at how teams fared in the English Premier League after their manager was fired. By using the average points per game (PPG) a team achieved under each manager we can estimate where a team would have finished in the table if they’d have kept the same manager until the end of the season, or where they’d be if they’d had their new manager from the start of the season. You’ll see each of the four teams that changed managers during the season (Chelsea, Sunderland, Q.P.R. & Wolves) displayed 3 times in the table below: Their actual position as they finished, plus the two hypothetical positions: one for each of their two managers.
It’s obviously not the most scientific process as it completely discounts the strength of opposition, injuries and myriad other factors but it gives an interesting overview. Whatever your opinion, it’s a tough sell to say that Terry Connor improved Wolves with his dismal 0.31 PPG return. Based on that return, Wolves would have needed to play 123 games to achieve safety this season - even the most ardent Wolves fan wouldn’t want to sit through that.
On a side note, everybody has been touting Di Matteo as the savior of Chelsea, and of course you can’t dispute the FA Cup success and a Champion League Final berth, but his Premier League performance has actually been slightly poorer than that of his predecessor. He hardly set the world alight in his previous Premier League coaching stint either where he averaged 1.04 points per game at West Bromwich Albion before being fired after 25 games. If he manages to secure the Chelsea position on a full time basis that will simply not cut it with the most capricious of Russian oligarch’s, Mr. Abramovich.
For Sunderland and QPR though, their respective managerial changes did produce the desired result with both teams avoiding the relegation positions they would have otherwise held. It seems for this season at least, the falling of the managerial axe worked more often than not. I wonder what the Blackburn Rovers owners would do if they had an opportunity to play this season again...
Great post, Todd. Poor old Wolves. Though looks like good ol' Mick wouldn't have kept them up either.
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